With Inflation At Highest Level Since 2008, Are Computer Chips The Only Supply-Chain Risk? - Forbes

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Inflation numbers released today showed the largest monthly increase in well over a decade, which got me to thinking about U.S. imports and how secure, or insecure, our top 10 are from supply-side shortages.

Easiest example: computer chips.

The auto industry says the chip shortage will cost it $110 billion in lost revenue. That can’t help but alter the landscape for the industry.

It’s not only the auto industry concerned about the shortage. It has official Washington wringing its hands in search of a solution.

And it has me scratching my head in search of an explanation that actually makes sense. Really? How did this happen? How did the world’s chip manufacturers get it so wrong?

More importantly: Does the United States have potential sourcing, or import, bottlenecks lurking out there. Are there other imports where there is a risk of too-much accumulation in too-few producing hands?

It matters because, as those numbers released today suggest, inflation is a real concern for everyone, from the governors at the Federal Reserve, whose decisions influence a wide variety of interest rates, to consumers and businesses.

In the case of computer chips, they reside in almost everything today, excluding our food (at least for the time being). They are in our appliances, our entertainment devices, our power grid, and on and on.

So important are computer chips that they rank among the nation’s top 10 imports. Among more than 1,200 import categories, those top 10 U.S. account for about one-third of all imports.

So, I thought that would be a good place to look for potential trouble.

The top 10 aren’t the only ones that matter — a shortage of lumber, whether imported from a wide variety of countries or not — can have an impact on price, as we have seen.

Two asterisks, of course. Which country is the source of an import is not the only factor. There’s weather, political or currency issues, large-scale accidents and so on. The second asterisk is that so much global trade now is intermediate-goods trade — or parts that go into final assembly. A number of the top 10 imports actually have, for example, computer chips in them.

That said, here’s a rundown of the top 10 U.S. imports, with their percentage of total U.S. imports and the largest market share by country. The quick summation is that there are three top 10 imports where more than 50% come from one country — computers and cell phones from China and oil from Canada — with a fourth, computer chips from Malaysia, at 49%.

1. Passenger vehicles. Passenger vehicles accounted for 6.1% of all imports through the first quarter. The top three markets are Japan (23%), Mexico (20%) and Canada (19%), for just under two-thirds of all imports. South Korea adds another 11% and Germany 9.6%.
2. Computers. Computers accounted for 4% of all U.S. imports through the first quarter. China accounted for a majority, at 52%, with Mexico accounting for 25%, or more than three-quarters of the total.
3. Oil ranked third. It accounted for 3.8% of the value of all imports through March, with 60% originating in Canada and 11% in Mexico, our two USMCA partners.
4. Cell phones. Cell phones and related equipment ranked fourth, accounting for 3.6% of all U.S. imports through March. China accounted for 56% of the total through March, with Vietnam at 13% and Mexico at 9.6%.
5. Medicines in individual doses. Generally in pill form, these medicines accounted for 3.4% of all imports, with Switzerland on top at 21% followed by Ireland at 16%, Germany at 11% and India at 9%. The first three don’t account for a majority here.
6. Motor vehicle parts. The value of motor vehicle parts was equal to 2.8% of all imports, with Mexico (38%), Canada (14%) and China (13%). Those three account for just under one-third of the total for U.S. imports.
7. Vaccines, plasma and other “blood fractions,” accounted for 2.2% of all U.S. imports in the first quarter, with Ireland (28%) and Germany (23%) accounting for a slight majority. Add in Belgium at 11% and Switzerland at 10% and you are approaching two-thirds of the total.
8. Gasoline, other petroleum fuels. Gasoline imports accounted for 1.9% of all U.S. imports in the first quarter, with 25% coming from Russia and another 21% coming from the Cananda. To get to a majority, you have to add the Netherlands (7%), a transshipment hub for Europe.
9. Computer chips. Computer chip make up 1.4% of all U.S. imports. Almost half of all computer chip imports come from Malaysia (49%), with another 11% from Taiwan for a total of 60%. Add in Vietnam (7%), South Korea (5.8%) and China (4.9%) and you are looking at 77.7% of the total.
10. Medical instruments. Medical instruments, and this includes everything from needles and syringes to EKG and MRI machinery, accounted for 1.1% of all U.S. imports in the first quarter, with 17% from China, 14% from Mexico and 13% from Canada. To get to 50% in this category, you have to add in Japan (5.1%) and Germany (4.9%).

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With Inflation At Highest Level Since 2008, Are Computer Chips The Only Supply-Chain Risk? - Forbes
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