Forecasters expect U.S. auto sales to decline in August 2021 vs. August 2020, because new vehicles are in relatively short supply, and factories can’t seem to keep up.
The ongoing computer chip shortage, and the global rebound in coronavirus cases, are disrupting auto industry supply chains. At the same time, consumer demand is robust. Dealers report they could sell a lot more cars and trucks, if only they had the inventory.
High retail prices are the other result of high demand and low supply.
Sales for August 2021 are expected to be around 1.1 million cars and trucks combined, down 13.7% vs. August 2020, and down 25.3% vs. pre-COVID August 2019, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. Percent comparisons are based on the daily average selling rate.
That translates to a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of just 13.1 million units, down from 15.2 million a year ago, or 17.1 million, in August 2019. The SAAR is an estimate of what sales would be for the entire year, based on the selling rate for a given month.
U.S. dealers have only about 942,000 vehicles in inventory available for retail sale, vs. around 3 million two years ago, according to Thomas King, president of the analytics division at J.D. Power.
Separately, TrueCar Inc. reported a somewhat higher August auto sales forecast, of about 1.2 million units, down 4% vs. a year ago. TrueCar’s estimate for the monthly SAAR is 14.4 million, also down 4% vs. a year ago.
New vehicles are selling fast, in some cases almost as soon as they arrive at a dealership, said Nick Woolard, lead industry analyst at TrueCar. About one-third of vehicles are selling within a week of arriving on the dealer lot, compared to just 18% last year, Woolard said.
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said more than 49% of vehicles would be sold within 10 days of arriving at a dealership, up from 26% in pre-pandemic August 2019. On average, a new vehicle sits on a dealer lot for a record-low estimate of 26 days.
That’s the first time on record below 30 days, and down from 62 days a year ago, the consulting and research firms said.
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August Auto Sales Fall; Lots Of Customers, Not Enough Computer Chips - Forbes
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