The current shortage of computer chips could last longer than expected, prolonging a shortage of new cars and trucks, and correspondingly high prices, potentially through all of next year, according to LMC Automotive.
“As we approach the end of 2021, the impact of the semiconductor shortage on the auto industry has yet to peak, contrary to initial expectations of this happening by the end of the second quarter,” said Jeff Schuster, president, Americas Operation & Global Vehicle Forecasting.
Auto industry analysts originally thought the chip shortage would be over in June, then it was the end of 2021, then the first half of 2022, and now according to LMC Automotive, it could take all of next year, too, before global auto manufacturing recovers to pre-pandemic levels.
LMC now expects worldwide light-vehicle production in 2021 to be “only marginally better” than 2020, when business shutdowns prompted by the coronavirus pandemic interrupted auto assembly lines. “Light” vehicles are passenger cars and light trucks — that is, not counting medium- and heavy-duty trucks, like 18-wheelers.
Compared with expectations just three months ago, LMC Automotive said its global light-vehicle auto production forecast for 2021 is now lower by 6 million units, at 81 million. In June, the consulting and analysis firm expected worldwide production of 87.5 million.
“Not only has the impact [of the shortage] intensified in the last two months, but the hope of a return to pre-pandemic conditions and a full recovery in early 2022 has all but evaporated,” Schuster said in a recent blog post.
LMC Automotive has also shaved its 2022 global light-vehicle forecast by 8% compared with its forecast as of the second quarter, to 85 million, the company said.
Separately, Auto Forecast Solutions, Chester Springs, Pa., said that as of Sept. 21, it expects the chip shortage to cut North American production by about 2 million units that are not likely to be recoverable, plus another 500,000 it considers “at risk.”
Taking that many units out of new-vehicle inventory has driven up prices. The lack of availability has also begun to cut into monthly U.S. auto sales.
U.S. auto sales were around 1.1 million in August, 17.2% below August 2020, according to Motor Intelligence.
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September 27, 2021 at 02:29AM
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